By Kevin Greer
Lakeside Communications Manager
When Rob Dale makes his annual visit to Lakeside with his family, one of his favorite things to do is get some rest.
Since Dale has a stressful job as a Certified Emergency Manager, he has earned that relaxation. Most of his time is spent on the upstairs porch of Same Time Next Year.
“I love the quietness,” Dale said. “I do go to some lectures in Orchestra Hall, but I enjoy getting to read and just relax.”
Dale is the leadoff speaker during the Chautauqua Lecture Series: Weather Forecasting & Calamities theme week on Monday, June 9 and Tuesday, June 10 at 10:30 a.m. in Orchestra Hall.
Unlikely Career Start
After earning his certification in meteorology from the USDA Graduate School, job opportunities were limited. His only option was to work at the weather service, something he didn’t want to do. He received an unexpected phone call from WTVG-TV meteorologist Stan Stachak, who offered Dale a position at the station.
“He says, ‘Hey, I know you got a degree. I need some fill-in work around the holidays. Do you want to be on TV?’” Dale recalled. “I said, ‘Not really, but I’ll give it a shot,’ and I loved it.”
Dale worked part-time on TV in his hometown for two years before taking a full-time job in Lansing, Michigan, for eight years. He still does weather forecasts for the Christian radio network Smile FM. He can also be heard on stations in Sandusky and Toledo.
Blame the Weatherman?
Meteorologists clearly have no control over the weather, but that doesn’t stop people from blaming them for causing activities to be canceled. Most complaints are from people who got a forecast from a phone app that turned out to be incorrect.
“The funny part is, people get forecasts from their phone, and they think the meteorologists all get together and make the Apple Weather App forecast,” Dale said. “That’s not how it works. People will often blame me and say the forecast said dry, but it’s rainy.”
Dale said the apps are good on quiet weather days, sometimes better than meteorologists at predicting temperatures. Where the apps aren’t as good and widely vary are thunderstorms or snowstorms.
Dale gave an example where one model for a snow event might predict 2 inches, and another might predict 10 inches; then, apps use the average and report 6 inches.
“I do get blamed for forecasts that I didn’t make,” Dale said. “I still get those, ‘You said it was going to be this,’ and I’m like, ‘No, I didn’t.’ I don’t mind if you blame me for bad weather, as long as you give me credit for nice days. It’s a tradeoff.”
Weather Patterns
Dale says it’s very difficult to predict the weather, especially in this region, due to the significant impact of the Great Lakes. What’s not making it easier is the change in weather patterns.
Dale noted several changes he has seen over the years:
- There aren’t more tornadoes during the year, but they’re happening in outbreaks. Instead of one or two at a time, there will be five or more. Tornado Alley is not just in Oklahoma or Kansas, it’s expanding more to the east to Illinois and Indiana and Ohio. There was a tornado in Kalamazoo, Michigan, last February, and to have one in the Great Lakes in February is not typical.
- Droughts are happening more often, but many times when it finally does rain, it’s intense and causes flooding.
- Winters aren’t as cold, and the lack of snow at ski slopes and the Great Lakes not freezing is hurting tourism areas. The number of times temperatures drop below zero has changed dramatically over the past 30 years.
“We’re seeing weather patterns becoming more volatile,” Dale said. “Winters around the Great Lakes are really where we’ve detected most of the change, and that they’re warmer, especially in the overnights.”
Career Change
Dale made a career switch to Deputy Emergency Manager for the Ingham County Michigan Emergency Management. He said the transition was a natural one.
“My family has a history of being firefighters or cops,” Dale said. “Emergency management was kind of next in line for me.”
The agency makes plans for incidents that overwhelm the area’s first responders. If the fire department needs excavators to remove rubble, it can do so. If an accident requires multiple ambulances, the agency has a backup plan in place.
Dale also visits schools to have them prepared for an active shooter situation. If a disaster meets certain criteria, they notify FEMA for federal assistance.
“I spend my day making plans for things that I hope never have to be used,” Dale said. “It’s not realistic, but we have to have a plan for those kinds of things.”
Helping You Get Prepared
Dale will lend his expertise for two lectures during Weather Forecasting & Calamities week. On Monday, he will teach Lakesiders how to become weather spotters. He will discuss funnel clouds and wall clouds and explain code words you may hear in a forecast that can help you anticipate potentially bad weather days.
“With all the tools that we have as meteorologists, nothing can duplicate the eyes of a trained spotter,” Dale said.
On Tuesday, Dale will discuss Emergency Management. He will present what is done behind the scenes at the agency and what you can do to make sure your home and family are prepared for a potential disaster. He also has information on a major storm that hit Ottawa County a couple of years ago.
“I’m excited to come to Lakeside,” Dale said. “I love teaching and talking to people about weather in an era where everyone thinks they know what FEMA does because they saw a disaster movie. I like helping people know what we do, what our role is and how they can be better prepared for disasters.”
